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by June 2025. “We The Federal Reserve cut its policy rate by 50 bps in September to the 4.75%-5.00% range, its first rate reduction since 2020. However, October is likely to be a particularly complicated month, with both a hurricane and a major strike threatening to depress payrolls, the brokerage cautioned.
By Nicholas Leighton Edited by Chelsea Brown Jun 6, 2025 Share Copy Key Takeaways Many founders focus all of their time, attention and energy toward parts of the business theyre most passionate about. classList.add(overflow-hidden); } else { document.body.classList.remove(overflow-hidden); document.getElementsByTagName(html)[0].classList.remove(overflow-hidden);
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The Monetary Policy Committee voted 6-3 to keep rates on hold. Electricity, gas and water prices caused inflation to jump sharply in April, with an increase to the minimum wage and higher employer payroll taxes adding further upward pressure. for the rest of 2025. in September and an average of just under 3.5%
The Fed is expected to leave its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range at the end of its two-day policy meeting next Wednesday. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 139,000 jobs in May, down from 193,000 a year ago. Surveys, including from the U.S. central bank, have suggested higher prices are coming.
In 2025, a growing number of major employers are mandating full-time returns to the office. Similarly, the federal government has followed suit; by early 2025, over 400,000 federal employees were required to be in the office at least two to three days per week, with some agencies enforcing full-time attendance.
The upbeat reports came a day after the Federal Reserve delivered a third consecutive interest rate cut, but projected only two rate reductions in 2025, citing the economy’s continued resilience and still-elevated inflation. In September, the Fed had penciled in four quarter-point rate cuts in 2025. in July from 3.7%
Todays payroll report reinforces the case for a Fed cut in December, but without inciting any meaningful worries about the labor market, said Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls would gain 200,000 jobs following a previously reported rise of 12,000 in October.
Labor market resilience is the driving force behind the economic expansion and has given the Federal Reserve room to pause interest rate cuts while policymakers assess the impact of the fiscal, trade and immigration policies of President Donald Trump’s administration, which economists view as inflationary. pace in the third quarter.
Economists say still-high interest rates and policy uncertainty, especially around import tariffs, are making companies cautious about increasing headcount. “There is likely to be some drag on employment in the March payroll report, but the effect so far doesn’t look to be dramatic.” Treasury yields fell.
job growth slowed marginally in April and employers continued to hoard workers, but the outlook for the labor market is increasingly darkening as President Donald Trump’s protectionist trade policy heightens economic uncertainty. ” In the midst of the swirling uncertainty, labor market resilience gives the U.S.
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